Earnings scorecard

The third-quarter 2025 earnings season for S&P 500 companies has been robust, with strong beats on earnings and revenue expectations despite some sector variability. As of mid-November 2025, 91% of the companies in the index have reported, here are some numbers: (1) 82% of reporting companies have beaten EPS estimates, surpassing the 5-year average of 78%. The aggregate earnings surprise stands at +7.0%. (2) Blended Revenue growth was 8.3%, the highest since Q3 2022, exceeding the 5-year average of 8.0%. (3) Blended EPS growth reached 13.1%, up significantly from the 7.9% estimate at quarter-end in September. This marks the fourth straight quarter of double-digit growth and the ninth consecutive quarter of positive YoY growth. (4) Blended net profit margin expanded to 13.1%, up from 12.8% in Q2 and the 5-year average of 12.1%. (5) The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 22.7, above historical averages. The Case Schiller P/E stands at 39.72, close to the historical max of 44. (6) For Q4 2025, negative EPS guidance outpaced positive (58% negative), signaling some caution. This week, NVDA results come out, as you can see in the chart below, and the guidance will be extremely important for markets and the economy. It is estimated that if we eliminate the huge CAPEX into data centers from hyperscalers, the US GDP would have grown at 0.1% for 2025. Let’s see if results are up to the hype.

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