Top ten risks
- Gustavo A Cano, CFA, FRM
- 1 day ago
- 1 min read
Eurasia Group’s Top Risks for 2026 report, has been published today. It highlights a volatile global environment, with the United States emerging as the primary source of risk due to domestic political shifts under President Trump. the Top 10 Risks are:
1. US political revolution: Trump’s attempts to consolidate power make the US the biggest global risk driver.
2. Spheres of influence: Growing division of the world into competing blocs led by major powers.
3. Sell America: Policies that undermine US economic and strategic interests (e.g., isolationism or erratic decisions).
4. Europe under siege: Multiple pressures on the EU, including political fragmentation and external threats.
5. Russia’s second front: Shift to hybrid warfare in Europe, beyond the Ukraine conflict.
6. State capitalism with American characteristics: Rise of protectionist, government-directed economic policies in the US.
7. China winning the global energy battle: (Inferred from themes; China gains advantage in energy transitions or resources.)
8. US military intervention in the Western Hemisphere: Potential direct actions in Latin America or nearby regions.
9. Zombie USMCA: The trade agreement becomes dysfunctional (“neither dead nor alive”) due to US pressures on Canada and Mexico.
10. The water weapon: Weaponization of water resources in conflicts or diplomacy.
The top risks are not related to AI becoming AGI, or scarcity of resources; it’s the old fashion “too much power in somebody’s hands”.
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