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Expectations and positioning

The jury is out with expectations for the U.S. economy for 2024. In the chart below, you can find the results of a survey conducted by #bankofamerica research where Fund Managers respond wether they see a soft landing for the economy, a hard landing or neither. 66% of them expect a soft landing, despite the fact that historical odds for soft landing are close to zero. 6% expect no landing whatsoever, in other words, expect the economy to grow from here. That scenario probably doesn’t include any rate cuts in 2024. Only 23% think the economy needs to pay a price for having fast rates increases after many years of zero interest rates. What does it mean for asset classes? In the same survey, 62% of Fund Managers, expect bond yields to be lower next year. And expectations for equities, are positive as well: New highs for U.S. indexes. If the scenario is so rosy, why would the economy need #ratecuts? Or is it because the cuts are priced in, and that is the catalyst to avoid recession and push asset prices higher?


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