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Leading indicators

The Bureau of Economic Analysis published the Leading Economic indicators for the U.S. economy. These are economic indicators that tend to signal what the gdp growth will be, and as you can see in the chart below, it’s not predicting a pretty picture. It shows a contraction of almost 8%,but more importantly it has been declining for 14 straight months. Since 1961, every time the #lei has contracted for more than 8 consecutive months, the US economy has entered in a recession. Historically, a contraction like this has come with rising #unemployment, but this time, it hasn’t happened (yet). For this reason the fed is embracing a strong labour market to keep pushing rates up to lower inflation, but it does look like eventually the economy will stop growing and they may have to start cutting rates.


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