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Market moves and expectations

Are #ratecuts expectations moving the market? As you can see in the chart below, over the last 2 months, the Bloomberg global Agg index, has gained 9.5%, the biggest 2 month gain of the last 33 years. The 10 year US Treasury yield was at 5ish% in October, and it’s now at 3.88%. For the S&P500 and Nasdaq? the numbers are 16% and 20% over the last 2 months. Nothing has really changed in the Macro front, other than the expectations that the Fed will lower rates by at least 75 bps during 2024, although what it’s really priced in is almost 150 bps in cuts. The U.S. dollar index is down almost 6%, signaling weakness in the currency ahead of indeed rates come lower. This is the setup for the last trading day of the year. Double digit returns for the year in equities, after a disastrous 2022, and a decent performance for bonds.


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