The month of November has been, historically speaking, the best for the S&P500. According to the stock trader’s almanac, since the 1950’s, November has returned 1.7%, and usually kicks off the best 6 months for the index (Nov-April). This year it’s been outstanding with an 8.43% mtd return, as we head into the last week of trading for the month. As you can see below, and despite being the best month, since the 1930’s, only 5 times has the index returned more than 8%. You can blame it on short covering, buybacks, or sentiment, but the market resilience has been incredible, despite #ratehikes, #qt, the #deficit, and 2 wars, it continues to show increíble strength, as it approaches the prior peak of July. From the technical perspective, if the index surpasses the July peak, the bull case could be built, since it would violate the down trend it started on December 2022. This market is not only not pricing a recession, is pricing a recovery.
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