SpaceX Post IPO scorecard

SpaceX’s public market debut has been a lesson in how fast sentiment can shift. The IPO priced at $135 in mid-June. Shares spiked to an all-time high above $220 within days, then spent the following month grinding lower. As of this week, SPCX is trading around $131, below its IPO price, as you can see on the top chart below. Whats’s going on? A few things are compounding the pressure: (1) Share float is expanding fast. Only 5% of total shares were unlocked at IPO, but early-release eligibility, extended lock-up windows, and, of course, Elon Musk’s own share unlock are all scheduled to bring that up toward ~95% by next summer. Please see the chart in the middle below. More supply hitting the market tends to weigh on price, and investors are pricing that in well ahead of time. (3) The credit market is sending a similar signal. The spread on SpaceX’s 6.65% 2056 bonds over comparable Treasuries has widened from roughly +180bps in late June to +220bps+ now — bond investors are demanding more yield to hold SpaceX risk, which usually reflects growing caution, not confidence.

Stock price and credit spreads don’t always move together this cleanly. When they do, it’s usually worth paying attention. Will the lock-up overhang keep pressuring the stock through 2027, or is this just post-IPO volatility working itself out?

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