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Apparent calm

The Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed the 40,000 mark this week. The S&P500 and Nasdaq are very close to All time highs. The VIX index has closed the week with the lowest reading since 2019, before the pandemic. Everything seems to be OK. What are the market’s biggest worries? According to the volatility term structure presented below, everything comes down to NVDA earnings, jobless claims, CPI and the Fed decisision. It’s not only that the market is concentrated in a handful of stocks, is that it’s also concentrated in a handful of indicators/data points. In the meantime, China has announced a $138Bn bond sale to stimulate its Real Estate sector and the USD has weakened, pushing precious metals up nicely for the week and for the year.

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