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Canary in the coal mine

Earnings season for the 1Q24 kicks in with major banks reporting results this week. It is important to understand what is the exposure to CRE and what is the extent of the problem. Also this week, inflation for the month of March will be published, which will be a key input for Fed policy in terms of rate cuts. But what is taking all attention is the gold price. It is going up consistently, currently at all time highs, and it’s driven mostly by foreign demand, perhaps a combination of Central Banls and institutional investors. This is not happening on the back of U.S. dollar weakness, as one would think; the world’s reserve currency has been stable. Gold has been considered through history as the canary in the coal mine, alerting that something is going on, despite the appearance of everything looking normal. This is a key development to follow.

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