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Changing expectations

Markets are starting to adapt to the new reality after the FOMC meeting a couple of weeks ago: gold is up firmly, above $2260/oz, crude oil has reached $85/barrel and Treasury prices are falling, with the 10 Year yield at 4.34%, at the same levels it was in October. To massage this new reality and knowing the March FOMC was going to be complicated, there are 19 speeches scheduled for this week by several Fed governors/members. It is becoming clearer that in order for the Fed to cut rates, the path needs to be clearer on the inflation front, and oil and metals are not helping. Tomorrow, inflation for the month of March in the EU will be published and we’ll see if commodities prices have filtered into the consumers basket, or if prices remain stable. Important to see if it’s a global problem or a U.S. problem.

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