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Chinese giant in distress

China just reported the 2Q GDP and it has materially slowed down. After a very strong 1Q, reality is starting to bite, since one of the most important components, the real estate sector, the biggest asset class in the world, keeps showing signs of distress. The Chinese government is trying to jumpstart its $60Tn real estate time

bomb, to avert a great financial crisis like the US went through in ‘08. Evergrande, the poster child of Chinese developers, just reported a massive $81Bn loss, equivalent to 3X Iceland gdp. Youth unemployment in China is high, and Chinese citizens have a huge exposure to real estate. The stimulus the whole world is waiting, needed to be postponed to defend the yuan. But now, with the USD recent weakness, the country is in full defense mode to rescue the most important pillar of its economy. The west needs that stimulus as well, to balance its QT and hawkish monetary policy, that will allow them to continue fighting inflation reducing the risk of a market meltdown.


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Chart source: Pictet Asset management



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