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Clear(er) path to new highs

Expectations for rate cuts continue to be aggressive after the release of inflation data for the U.S. this week. While the Fed forecasts 4 #ratecuts to 4.625% by December, the market has gone from discounting 5 cuts prior to Thursday to discounting almost 7 cuts by Friday. Equity indices started the year on a soft note, but have, since the first week, regained strength and are trading at or near new highs. The recent rally is not necessarily based on good news, since inflation was worse than expected, but perhaps is due to the fact that some uncertainties surrounding global markets are disappearing, clearing the path to new highs: inflation, payroll numbers and the results of elections in Taiwan have been uneventful. What’s next? Earnings season and the FOMC at the end of the month.

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Chart source: Bianco research

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