As we enter the second quarter of an election year, we’re starting to see polls and surveys about the winning odds of each candidate in the two major parties. One thing we’ve learned, however, since 2016 election, is that polls are mostly biased and voters change their opinion as they get closer to Election Day. This is particularly important on the so called “swing states”, those that typically decide the elections because they haven’t historically leaned towards one party consistently. As you can see below, those states point today to a Trump victory. Having said that, we’re still in April, and the republican candidate, which needs to be oficialized on the RNC in July, is still embedded in a legal battle that may take him out of the ballots. Markets are still mostly concerned with the Fed and rate cuts, and have not focused on politics yet. Since the outcome of the elections will not be easily accepted by either candidate, it’s highly likely that volatility will raise as we get closer to the November.
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