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Inflation keeps trending down

The US CPI for the month of June will be published today at 8:30 am. Market Consensus expects a monthly increase in prices of 0.3% that implies a YoY growth of 3.1%. Remember that June 2022 was the peak of inflation growth at 9.1%, so there is a benefit comparing this year’s data against a strong number last year. The key number will be core CPI, which has been stickier, and the expectation is a 5% growth vs last year. Nevertheless, as you can see in the chart below, with the eternal exception of Japan, inflation is trending down globally, in major economies. Also noticeable, is the fact that China is on the brink of deflation, which is the main reason they’re expected to stimulate the economy, at the risk of weakening the Yuan. The US is getting closer to the goal of 2% in this inflation cycle.


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