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Irrational exhuberance?

2024 will be remembered as the year of NVDA. 160% YTD performance, with $2Tn in market cap added in the last 180 days. It accounts by itself for 43% of the S&P500 YTD returns. Let that sink in. It’s just 3% away from surpassing MSFT as the biggest company in the world by market cap. Interestingly, MSFT is NVDA biggest client, accounting for almost 20% of last year’s revenue. And even more interesting from the market concentration standpoint, the following biggest NVDA clients are the (other) fabulous 3 (amzn, goog, meta). The four biggest clients account for 40% of NVDA’s revenues. It’s quite remarkable what’s happening in the US market. If you look at the chart below, the first thing that caught the eye is the vertical price behavior of the NVDA and what happened before with MSFT in the late 90’s and with Apple in the 2010’s. But perhaps the most incredible thing for that chart is the y- axis scale: it measures performance.

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