The chart below may be, by itself, the whole problem in the relationship between the market and the fed. It shows there are 2 job openings per each unemployed person in the US. If inflation is 8ish percent and unemployment still at 3ish percent and there are plenty of job openings, the fed feels comfortable being hawkish, and will keep pushing rates up to suppress demand and lower inflation. Most of these job openings, however, are in the hotel, restaurant and real estate sectors, which are very sensible to the cycle. As we saw during the pandemic, the ratio can fall vertically. And it will take a lot of effort and stimuli, to get it back to normal.
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Source: FRED, the Daily Shot.
