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Reality check

UK inflation was published today. The good news is that both headline and core CPIs were lower than the prior month; the not so good news is, it was a tad higher than expected, and headline number is still above 4%. This might be an indication that global inflation is stickier than expected, above the 2% target. As a consequence, several respected voices are coming out supporting the view that the Fed rate cut plans might be derailed for 2024. And the market is starting to realize that too: as you can see below, the number of companies in the S&P500 above the 50 day moving average has plummeted to 34%, Treasury yields are going up, with the 10 year at 4.65%, and gold continues to be bid, reaching $2400 in the futures market. We might be at a tipping point.

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