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Tipping point

After a couple of years of coordinated efforts by global central banks hiking rates to control inflation, the tide is starting to change, and some central banks have stopped hiking and others are starting to ease. As you can see in the chart below, 30 rate cuts have already happened over the last 3 months. And if we look at the futures and swap curves, they are indicating lower rates for 2024 by around 70 bps for the #fed and the #ecb, which is the equivalent to 3 cuts. Neither the U.S. 2 year Treasury bond, the most sensible to Fed fund rates, nor the German counterpart, have discounted any of these movements yet. The tendency for developed markets central banks is to keep rates unchanged until something happens to justify action. There needs to be a spark or a catalyst to start the cutting cycle. The next #fomc meeting is on December 12-13th. For the #ecb, one day after on December 14th.


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