Today at 8:30 am, the unemployment rate in the U.S. for the month of March will be published. Despite corporate announcements regarding layoffs and its euphemism “operational efficiency”, consensus expects no change at 3.7%. A lower participation rate (62%), and a higher than expected number of retirees, are keeping the unemployment rate near historical lows. Alongside inflation, which will be reported next Tuesday, employment is one of the key ingredients for the Fed’s dual mandate, and absent surprises, the FOMC meeting on the 20th, will likely conclude with no rate change. As the market is still discounting more rate cuts than can probably fit on 2024, and valuations are demanding, any deviation from expectations has the potential for big market movements.
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