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As expected, the workable list of points presented by Iran was immediately violated, in this case by Israel, who took the opportunity to bomb Lebanon, trying to eliminate Hezbollah. Iran has responded by closing again the strait of Hormuz, so we’re back to square one. But are we? Oil has not moved back to the prior highs, and US equity futures are slightly down. Is the market starting to adjust to the consequences of the conflict? Or is it because China is starting to interve

Yesterday, Iran presented its "10-point plan" which includes the following terms: 1. Complete cessation of the war on Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen. 2. Complete and permanent cessation of the war on Iran with no time limit. 3. Ending all conflicts in the region in their entirety. 4. Reopening the Strait of Hormuz. 5. Establishing a protocol and conditions to ensure freedom and security of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. 6. Full payment of compensation for reconstruction

The asset coverage test (ACT) is a key leverage restriction under the 1940 Act, applicable to Business Development Companies (BDCs). BDCs are the public sister of Private Credit funds. The test measures a BDC’s ability to cover its senior securities (primarily outstanding debt/borrowings and any preferred stock) with its assets. Most BDCs today adhere to the lower coverage ratio of 150% (effectively 2:1 debt to equity) post 2018 (it used to be 200%), provided they have appro

It’s increasingly difficult to understand the status of the Iranian conflict. Just when you think both parties are close to reaching an agreement, there’s more bombing. And the situation changes, literally, by the hour. We’re in the latest 48h Trump ultimatum that coincides with the prior 10 day warning he published 10 days ago. But at the same time they seem to be negotiating a truce. Brent oil is down so far today, which means the market thinks the talks are real. But inve

The Iranian conflict has entered its second month with significant escalation involving direct US involvement alongside Israel. It has caused thousands of deaths (military and civilian) across Iran, Israel, Lebanon, and Gulf states, widespread infrastructure damage, displacement of millions, and disruptions to global energy markets thanks to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The situation remains fluid and highly escalatory, with risks of further missile exchanges, proxy i

Yesterday’s U.S. jobs report showed a surprisingly strong rebound in payroll job growth, with nonfarm payrolls rising by 178,000. The report delivered a positive surprise after February’s weakness (which included strike activity, weather, and other factors). The unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% from 4.4% (below the expected 4.4%). The number of unemployed people was roughly 7.2 million. Job growth beat expectations by a wide margin, suggesting the labor market has some u

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases the Employment Situation report for March 2026 today, at 8:30am. What’s to be expected? The labor market showed signs of weakness in February: Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly declined by 92,000 jobs and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4 % (from 4.3% in January). Factors included a healthcare worker strike, weather impacts, federal government job cuts, and broader slowdown in hiring momentum. Consensus for March expects Nonfarm p

In a strange combination of diplomacy and military actions, both Iran and the US talked about peace and the need to end the conflict, while bombing each other and their allies. Words don’t matter in this conflict. It’s what they do that matters, not what they say. And the thermometer of the conflict, Brent oil, is up again 8% today. After an open letter where Iran President addressed the American people reassuring Persians have no emnity to Americans and that they are simply

Central banks are selling US treasuries and MBS. You can see the trend in the charts below. They have been, for the most part, buying gold instead of buying or holding US bonds. The trigger was the confiscation of Russian assets at the beggining of the Ukraine war, but the fiscal situation in the US has perhaps depended the concern about the strength of the U.S. dollar as a long term store hold of value. Gold has been sold (or swapped) during the Iranian war by Turkey and by

It is getting clearer by the day that Trump wants to get out of the war with Iran as soon as possible. The level of frustration is increasing rapidly, and patience is running thin. The latest announcement coming from the White House indicates that the U.S. may be ending the war without reopening Hormuz. This can be a tactic to test the public opinion on the matter or it could be just another maneuver to create confusion. In the chart below, you can see the price of West Texas

The Nasdaq 100 and the DJIA are in correction territory (-10%) from the maximums. The S&P500 will join them soon. Brent oil, just reached $116 and continues to inflict pain all over the world. The Iranian conflict shock, with the continued closure of the strait of Hormuz has changed the narrative, direction and leadership of the U.S. stock market. In January, it was still a growth story, with mag7, AI and the rapid intervention in Venezuela, at the center of the universe. Feb

The Iranian conflict is creating dislocations, with the blockage of Hormuz and its subsequent shock on oil prices. Take a look at the chart below: since the 70’s the ratio of gold vs oil has been contained in a range between 10-30 times. That was considered the norm. In 2020, thanks to COVID that ratio spiked to 70, as the world came to a stop, with minimum usage of oil, and gold spiked thanks to global monetary and fiscal stimuli. It it came back relatively quickly. What do

In December 2025, after ending its balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) on December 1, the FOMC directed the New York Fed’s Open Market Trading Desk to begin Reserve Management Purchases (RMPs) of Treasury bills. The purpose: Maintain an “ample reserves” regime by offsetting seasonal and trend growth in non-reserve liabilities. This prevents tightness in short-term money markets and ensures effective control over the federal funds rate. It is explicitly not monet

The market is learning. Algos are supposed to react instantaneously to news regarding the iranian conflict, and they do, but now they have learned when they’re being played. Here’s the tune: oil futures go down when Trump announces a peace deal, and go up when he hints an attack is imminent. But now right after the comments, once they realize they are being played, they react instantaneously, and go back to waiting mode. Same thing with the 10 year Treasury. Those are the two

There is still no clear sign that negatioations between Iran and the U.S. are currently underway. Trump says Iran is “begging” for a deal and Iranians say there is no deal. If you watch the price of crude oil you can follow the narrative almost to the dot. If negotiations hit the tape, oil price goes down, when they are denied it goes up. What seems to be true is that 5000 marines are already in the gulf, waiting to attack. The target seems to be Kharg island, bit perhaps the

The U.S. is negotiating terms with Iran to end the war. We don’t know who is the Iranian negotiator, and we don’t know if they will abide to agreed terms. At the same time, the U.S. is sending troops to the region to be prepared in case negotiations fail. Perhaps even if they succeed. Markets are unease about the outcome. So much so, that yesterday’s 2 year Treasury auction was bad. The yield rose to 3.9% and its stable around those levels (see chart below). This is very impo

We’re in the middle of the 4th week of the Iran conflict where Trump is getting anxious about it and mentioned that the US and Iran had held “very good and productive conversations” over the prior two days regarding a “complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East.” As a result, he instructed the US military to postpone any and all strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days, subject to the progress of ongoing discussions. Thi

After two weeks of conflict, and two weeks of closure in Hormuz, 23 nations have signed a joint statement condemning the closure and pledging readiness to ensure safe passage. But no commitment of war ships, no escorts, no military operation. The world is choking, and someone thought they could ask Iran to reopen the strait, when that’s perhaps the only effective negotiating card they have left. Furthermore, neither the U.S., nor China or Israel are signing the letter. Countr

The conflict in Iran just enter its third week. Mix signals from President Trump regarding the evolution of the war: from boots on the ground, to take control of the Kharg island, to winding down the conflict because the goals have been achieved (whatever those were). We’ll probably see a few more changes, but the fact of the matter is that even though leadership in Iran has been decimated, and major infrastructure (energy, nuclear, military) has been destroyed, no official s

As we enter the third week of the conflict in Iran, yesterday was a clear example of the ripple effects and the interconnection of markets. On the top chart you can see the real estate index in Dubai, 60% lower since the start of the war. On top of that, as bombing intensifies, people took their deposits out of banks creating a bank run, which forced (allegedly) the Central bank to sell its gold reserves to defend the currency and support local banks, causing a 10% drawdown i